Saturday, 3 March 2012

Lessons



As F. S. Mishkin mentioned in Lessons from theAsian crisis (1999), there are several lessons learnt from this Asian crisis.   The first lesson from the crisis is a reasonable government intervention can make the financial system to restore stability: for emerging market countries, which requires the international lender of last resort. The second lesson is that the international lender of last resort must develop an appropriate loan condition to avoid formation of excessive moral hazard caused by financial instability.  In industrialized countries, the central bank can be through an expansionary monetary or the lender of last resort can restart whole financial system to recovery. Because the institution features of the financial system in emerging market make the central banks lack of this ability in these countries.  In this case, an international lender of last resort highly recommended to involve in coping with the financial crisis in these countries. 

International Monetary Fund (IMF), the financial fire-fighter of the world, played the part of international lender of last resort in this crisis. Austerity policy that IMF used only protected the safety of repaying loans, but the recession has aggravated in these countries. The natural of IMF is essentially just an organization of credit union. It cannot create unlimited number of international reserves. Therefore it cannot provide adequate loans to illiquid countries internationally.  Y.C.R.Wong (1999)presented in his paper, IMF was too inefficient to help those countries under that urgent situation, and the bailout IMF offered was “too little, too late”. But he also stated there was no evident shows IMF could have done more and quickly, and that given its own limitations to perform the role of international lender of last resort.





This crisis also exposed the financial sector was the weakest part in whole Asian economy structure, a steady financial system is very important to every country! The manufacturing industry in Japan and South Korea were very good, but they still had to suffer from the crisis. The reason was they had common characteristics as lack of capital market efficiency, improper credit decision-making and overspent the capital on real estate market. Furthermore, their internal risk control was seriously short and the external regulations were useless. In contrast, Hong Kong had a relatively stable banking system. This is why they could survive from this crisis.

The fourth lesson is that pegged exchange rate system for emerging market countries is very dangerous, it makes the financial crisis are more likely. Countries with sound political and legal framework are more capable to sustain pegged exchange rate system. As the international cash flow become more and more important, the currency in America and Europe are completely fluctuated. Under this circumstance, the emerging market is more appropriate to adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime. When a country lack of foreign exchange reserves, it is pointless to retain pegged exchange rate. That results a rapid increase in foreign exchange market after Asian financial crisis.

This Asian financial crisis is not only a disaster in Asia area, but also affected the globe economy. It disclosed a lot of weakness of Asian economic system, and hopefully we can learn from this crisis to avoid make same mistakes in the future.